Two more homicides?

[La Huerita]

Sub, you disparage the use of anecdotal evidence and then you provide us with -- more anecdotal evidence?

 

[Submarine]

Sub, you disparage the use of anecdotal evidence and then you provide us with -- more anecdotal evidence?

Yes and I gave you hard facts too (see the link), but no one seems to understand anything but andecdotal evidence around here.

 

[Submarine]

Submarine says:"You pretty much proved my point."

Which was...? I did?? By repeating more anecdotal evidence and not even trying to find any facts.
Look, (laughing at the ridiculousness of this..) is Rocky Point under seige by drug thugs and boogie men - are people in any SPECIAL or elevated Defcon 5 danger of being kidnapped, beheaded, robbed, shot or spit at on the way to RP? That's the core question, remember? Yes they are, statistically. If you live in the United States, all of it, your statistical probability of suffering a violent crime doubles once you cross the border. This is fact, not my opinion.

I'm asking you why ISN'T RP safe? I am asking what justifies lumping RP in with Mexico at large and the current LEVEL of Mexico-phobia? Because RP is relatively close to the border and as a realist I see no reason for assuming that it is, or shall continue to be, insulated from violence in other cities. You might research any number of Jerry's posts to see other communities that were once considered safe and have fallen victim to the narco violence and more.

First you tell us report after report of safe travel means nothing - tens of thousands of "Bob & Marthas" experiencing safe travel means squat - that's brilliant - there could be nasty business befalling victims all the time and we just haven't heard it - I guess?? You can find reports of problems, but they aren't compiled in any easily searchable and codified format. Just to be clear, the "bob and martha's" I was referring to are mostly from post here where any particular individual says they have gone down for years and not had problems, their friends didn't have problems. However, most of the people here will admit some issues if you delve a little deeper. Some have even been posted here. No they have not risen to the level of kidnapping but there have been some pretty interesting confrontations with the Police.

Then you give your own personal suspicions and anecdotes and vague example of cosmically possible danger. Just speaking in a language you understand, sorry it's not all roses. I don't see your reference to 'cosmically possible danger' though.
Then you offer your philosphy that "we're all sentenced to die so do what you like", which was just weird. If you took the time to read my post you would see that is in quotes and I read it somewhere else. I found that perspective interesting.
Now you say it's probably not safe because I can't deliver a stat sheet of crime facts - more of the "if-you-can't-prove-it's-safe-then-how-do-we-know-it-isn't-dangerous" logic. Ass backwards, I'm sorry, but that is. (If you can't show me that a meteor attack is not coming this afternoon, then it may very well be school of thought?) Here again your logic fails. We can track asteroids and such, here is one site: http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/ You may find the FAQ quite interesting, particularly #5 http://neat.jpl.nasa.gov/neofaq.html So again, you proved my point. If we are particularly concerned about an asteroid hitting Earth of the size that can cause a catastrophic event there are people looking and compiling that information. If I want to find out if Mexico is safe overall I can go to UN crime statistics and see it isn't as a whole. But if I want to go to RP tomorrow and wonder if everything is still OK all i have is rosy opinions from people here who are afraid of affecting tourism.

Now you are talking about old individual murders, ATV accidents, vague Federale spook stories and tales of burning hulks roadside (huh? - Road Warrior stuff or simple breakdowns - what are you suggesting?) Beruit?
I've seen more burned vehicles on the road to RP than I ever have on Arizona highways. I drive for a living so I find his particularly interesting. I see dozens of wrecks on I-10 on any given month yet few turn into fireballs.
Once again, I must force this concept of perspective down your throat - swallow it - it eat, it's good for you, I promise. Try as you might, you just aren't John Stossel.

The point you tried to make that got my goat was this:

"I think the point is that you can't prove any of that except with anecdotes. If Billy Bob and Martha go down and have a great time with not so much a lost wallet it doesn't prove anything, and those kind of anecdotes are all anyone can offer as 'proof' that Rocky Point is safe."


You really don't see the insanity of this logic?
Let me put it in analogy:

Let's say you and I are about to exit our house together, at night.
Rocky Point and the road there are like the outside... at night, OK?

You say, with a straight face: "Stop. There might be ninjas out there."
To which I reply, "No I don't think so. Let's go."
You: "Prove to me there are no ninjas in the bushes with big Samurai swords."
Me: "Prove to you there are no ninjas? What the hell?"
You: "See you can't. Do you know for a fact we're not going to get a throwing star in the throat?"
Me: "Have there been a rash of ninja attacks I don't know about?"
You: "No. But that proves nothing. Maybe we just don't know about them. Can you prove ninjas are not ready to strike us down with bloody precise force? Can you?"
Me: "Umm... none of the neighbors have been executed; I think we are alright."
You: "Hmmph. That means nothing. Anecdotes. Peolple get attacked outside at night a lot."
Me: "Where?"
You: "Other places. I read about it. One time, in Nagasaki -"
Me: "Nagasaki?"
You: "And also in Taiwan, and also in this one ninja movie I saw. I also saw a car on fire. And a friend wrecked his bike once too."
Me: "What?? Ahem - So you won't go out, because.... I cannot prove to you there is no ninja behind our car?"
You: "I'm just saying there could be. But fukk it - I'm a risk taker!"
Me: "Uh....huh..."

Completely ridiculous analogy not worth a response but I'll try.
You: Let's tell everyone to go to Rocky Point, it's Safe!
Me: why not tell them the truth, it may not be as safe as you are assuming.
You: What are you talking about? It's completely safe! RP isn't Tijuana!
Me: No, but it isn't immune to the sort of problems going on in the rest of the country, just as every community in America isn't immune from crime.
You: You're crazy! You don't have any perspective!
Me: Sure I do. I see that Mexico as a whole has double the crime rate of the U.S. I see that most of the violence occurs in cities near the border, and RP is pretty close. I see that RP could easily become victim to the same cartels that have terrorized other cities. I think it's important to be honest with people about the possible risks when travelling to RP.
You: None of my volleyball players had their heads cut off!
Me: well that just sucks for the rest of us doesn't it? It would sure make volleyball more interesting....

 

[m4shawn]

Yes and I gave you hard facts too (see the link), but no one seems to understand anything but andecdotal evidence around here.

Oh for crap's sake, Sub, you're hopeless. Just because you choose to ignore our point doesn't make it wrong. Some random Wikipedia statistic on UN murder rates from 11 years ago (1998-2000) on the entire geographical country of Mexico that includes all manner and shape and motive of homicide of Mexican aganst Mexicana is your reasoning that we are quite likely in danger of abduction and death as Americans when we drive 60 miles into Rocky Point --- really, dude?
This is the crux of your proof?

Once again.... have you any "Hard Facts" about why it is alarmingly, unusually, especially, noteworthily, legitimately dangerous to go to RP? Something that justifies the hysteria? You can't; just let it go; you got nothing but ghost stories and ridiculous logic. You're abandoning common sense and....(drumroll for our friend).... PERSPECTIVE!!!

La Huerita nailed you, friend; you scoff at us for anecdotal evidence - or rather, our lack of damaging anecdotal evidence (10,000's of people NOT experiencing any trouble or peril), and then you launch into a diatribe full of the silliest kind of anecdotal crap (spook Federale tales of 16 year olds with automatic weapons menacing women, burning cars (still..WTF?, and your favorite: bodies buried in the desert. You also mentioned something about ATV accidents.. which... yea - that applies to drug cartel danger - sure, make perfect sense).

You see Sub, the vast, vast majority of the recently murdered were either involved in the drug trade themselves, or were part of the forces (Army/ police/ judges/ officials) who are fighting them. If you’re planning to work for a drug cartel or join the Mexican Army, then by all means you should think twice about coming to Mexico. But even then, Rocky Point will not be on your map, regardless of whether you are good guy or bad. It's not a drug hub.

Here's some hard stuff for your consideration. Enjoy:
http://www.thetruthaboutmexico.com/2009/04/the-problem-with-non-natural-death-statistics/

http://www.thetruthaboutmexico.com/2009/03/traveling-to-usaam-i-crazy-please-help/

 

[Submarine]

The police emergency is 066. I asked a cop friend of mine about the supposed incident and he said that he had heard no such report. Now I think that he would know don't you? Sub, come on will ya? You're the glass half empty kind of guy huh? I know you like the shorter wait at the border but trying to scare people away is the medias job not yours. I once had a cooler stolen out of the back of my truck. It was parked in front of a bar at 1:30AM. Lions and tigers and bears, oh my.

You'd be surprised what cops know and what they don't, even more so in RP. I bet some murders they aren't supposed to know about, or even talk about. I'm not saying this murder rumor is true or not because I don't know, but I wouldn't assume you are getting all the facts from one cop buddy.
I'm sure my rantings here will have absolutely zero effect on tourism. Everyone here goes south of the border fairly regularly including myself. That doesn't mean I can't discuss the reality of what is going on in Mexico, so don't take your frustration with the Media out on me.

I had a coleman lantern stolen on Sandy Beach with 20 people sleeping around it. I miss that lantern.

 

[m4shawn]

I just read your second response. You're just continuing with the ninja argument, over and over and over again. - Prove to everyone that there AREN'T ninjas in the bushes (or that they MIGHT not be coming), or it's reasonable to believe they are out there.
Sub - what is up your wazoo about Rocky Point, man - or do you just hate to loose an argument this bad?

 

[m4shawn]

You'd be surprised what cops know and what they don't, even more so in RP. I bet some murders they aren't supposed to know about, or even talk about.

OH MY GOD!!! Your logic is flawless! If there's no common sense proof of murder most fowl, then it may very well be because there is a cover up or because the cops don't know about it???? This is absurd.

That doesn't mean I can't discuss the reality of what is going on in Mexico,

No - see - the reality of what is going on in Rocky Point, or rather, what is NOT going on, is exactly what you are NOT discussing, Sub. You are discussing your conspiracy theories, suspicions and spook stories.

Still waiting for anything resembling common sense convincing proof that Americans are wise to be afriaid to come to Rocky Point and that the hysteria is justified. I remember what our original issue was.
Ninja phobia is not reason to be afraid.

And again - the violence MIGHT be coming because we are crossing a border town? You are a fear mongerer. Yes, yes you are.

And nice job trying to twist the murder stats into saying we are twice as likely to be killed once we cross the border - what a crock. Ever heard of putting stats into context, or the abuse of them?
Rocky Point is to Mexico City as Sedona is to Washington D.C.
The murder rate (varied as that is anyways) is not a constant.
Yeesh.

 

[Submarine]

Oh for crap's sake, Sub, you're hopeless. Just because you choose to ignore our point doesn't make it wrong. Some random Wikipedia statistic on UN murder rates from 11 years ago (1998-2000) on the entire geographical country of Mexico that includes all manner and shape and motive of homicide of Mexican aganst Mexicanas your "proof" that we are probably in danger of abduction and death as Americans when we drive 60 miles into Rocky Point --- really, dude? This is the crux of your proof? Actually, those statistics aren't random. They are Intentional Homicide Rates, not "non-natural death" statistics like your links. In plain english, this means someone killed someone else on purpose, not that they had an accident and died. Those rates are overall homicide rates, not just mexican on mexican. I never said you are 'probably in danger of abduction or homicide', what I said was that you are twice a likely to experience a violent crime in Mexico vs. the U.S.
Lets use an analogy that you are so fond of. If I told you that you could jump off a building in the U.S. and you would only have a 25% chance of dying, but if you jump off a building in Mexico your chance of dying is 50%, which building would you choose? Absurd of course but I hope you will get my point now.

Once again.... give me some "Hard Facts" about why it is alarmingly, unusually, especially, noteworthily, legitimately dangerous to go to RP. Something that justifies the hysteria. You can't; just let it go; you got nothing but ghost stories and ridiculous logic. You're abandoning common sense and....(drumroll for our friend).... PERSPECTIVE!!! The "hard facts" are, once again, that your statistical likelihood of experiencing a violent crime anywhere in Mexico are double that of in the U.S. This includes RP and if you agree that more violent crime has occurred near the border in the last few years you should agree that you are at a higher risk when travelling to RP than other parts of the country.

La Huerita nailed you, friend; you scoff at us for anecdotal evidence - or rather, our lack of damaging anecdotal evidence (10,000's of people NOT experiencing any trouble or peril), and then you launch into a diatribe full of the silliest kind of anecdotal crap (spook federale tales, burning cars, and your favorite: bodies buried in the desert. You also mentioned something about ATV accidents.. which... yea - that applies to drug cartel danger - sure, make perfect sense). There is plenty of damaging anecdotal evidence on this forum and even more lost on the old Rocky Point forum. I'm sorry if I didn't make it clear that the ATV accidents weren't related to drug cartels. I didn't think you would make that connection. I was merely talking about other general dangers about RP travel. I left out jellyfish stings, stingrays, and bad guacamole. ALL of which do not have anything to do with drug cartels. Well, maybe the guacamole, I can't be completely sure about that one.

You see Sub, the vast, vast majority of the recently murdred were either involved in the drug trade themselves, or were part of the forces (Army/ police/ judges/ officials) who are fighting them. If you’re planning to worki for a drug cartel or join the Mexican Army, then by all means you should think twice about coming to Mexico. But Rocky Point will not be on your map, regardless of whether you are good guy or bad. It's not a drug hub.
Not Yet it isn't. Hopefully not ever, but I never thought the condos would happen either. Jerry posted up a nice video about narcos raiding a jewelry store. They shot innocent customers including their own man. Are you seriously assuming that bullets somehow know how to avoid tourists?
I do like your assumption that the "vast, vast majority of the recently murdred" were all criminals. I want what you're smokin man. Since you've established that we can just make sweeping generalizations without any sort of facts I'll say that the 'vast, vast majority of condos in RP were bought with drug money". Hey, this is fun. "The vast, vast majority of condo owners are habitual users of Viagra". "The vast, vast majority of volleyball players are customers of The Black Widow". :wink:

Here's some hard stuff for your consideration. Enjoy:
http://www.thetruthaboutmexico.com/2009/04/the-problem-with-non-natural-death-statistics/

http://www.thetruthaboutmexico.com/2009/03/traveling-to-usaam-i-crazy-please-help/

Pretty useless blog although it is entertaining. He misses the point that fewer Americans travel to Mexico than compared to total non-natural deaths in the U.S. If you just looked at the non-natural death rate of people who traveled to Mexico you might have a more valid comparison, certainly a more interesting one. To make this clear to you, examine only Mexico travelers over time and see at what rate they died in the US vs Mexico of non-natural causes and see if there is a difference statistically. Most likely it would be higher in the U.S. because people spend more time there. Of course, this still doesn't nullify the intentional homicide statistic I quoted earlier.

 

[Submarine]

OH MY GOD!!! Your logic is flawless! If there's no common sense proof of murder most fowl, then it may very well be because there is a cover up or because the cops don't know about it???? This is absurd.
Not when you consider the rampant corruption in Mexican government, military, and police departments.


No - see - the reality of what is going on in Rocky Point, or rather, what is NOT going on, is exactly what you are NOT discussing, Sub. You are discussing your conspiracy theories, suspicions and spook stories.
It's comments like these that just dilute your argument.

Still waiting for anything resembling common sense convincing proof that Americans are wise to be afriaid to come to Rocky Point and that the hysteria is justified. I remember what our original issue was.
Ninja phobia is not reason to be afraid. That Americans should be afraid is your words. I say they should be aware of the risks. There is a difference.

And again - the violence MIGHT be coming because we are crossing a border town? You are a fear mongerer. Yes, yes you are.
Again, your statistical likelihood of experiencing a violent crime is double Mexico vs. the U.S. Knowing that most violent crime seems to be concentrated at the border, your risk is higher when travelling through border cities.

And nice job trying to twist the murder stats into saying we are twice as likely to be killed once we cross the border - what a crock. Ever heard of putting stats into context, or the abuse of them? Yeah, just saw a good example of abusing them on those links you provided. My links didn't have an agenda.
Rocky Point is to Mexico City as Sedona is to Washington D.C.
The murder rate (varied as that is anyways) is not a constant.
Yeesh.

Actually if you look at those statistics you will see that while the U.S. rate has remained fairly constant, Mexico's rate has dropped (this doesn't include the rather violent year of 2008). However, if you look at the last few years it has remained rather constant at double the U.S. rate. The years that Mexico's rate ballooned was when there was a lot going on in Chiapas. So you could argue that the drug/border violence has been rather constant.

 

[m4shawn]

The "hard facts" are, once again, that your statistical likelihood of experiencing a violent crime anywhere in Mexico are double that of in the U.S. This includes RP..

It includes Rocky Point, huh. Did you... read the relation as Sedona is to Wash D.C. -- that have any value to you at all? No?
So tell me, Statistical Wizard - you feel comfortable saying that RP is as perilous as say Juarez or Tijuana or areas in Sinaloa state deep into cartel traffic because it's a border area town?
You're full of it - I give up.
Ninjas. Ninja madness.
You blah blah blah and still.... we are back to square one: anything common sense and concrete -- about ROCKY POINT - to justify the hysteria and xenophobia many Americans are feeling about going there?

I mean besides personal, theoretical leaps from way too broad murder stats, campfire tales about buried bodies and your own ignoring the fact that we do not have any reliable stories about Americans being targeted as victims out of the thousands and thousands of visitors to RP each month?

Sure there is risk anywhere - what's the special point there??
The POINT IS --- IS THERE ANY SPECIAL REASON TO CLAIM THAT WE ARE AT ELEVATED RISK -- IS THE HYSTERIA JUSTIFIED?

You're being obtuse and it's obnoxious.

My links didn't have an agenda.

No - you just quoted them.. and then interprted them to try to serve your own agenda. You're a real DIY'er - congrats! P-s-sh.

 

[Roberto]

"Again, your statistical likelihood of experiencing a violent crime is double Mexico vs. the U.S."

This is a misunderstanding about statistics. Just because something is descriptive and can mathematically be expressed as a percentage does not make it a useful predictive statistic. If you say ' the likelyhood is doubled' you are making a probability statement about that defined universe, "the entire country of Mexico". The problem is that the numbers are based on the entire country of Mexico and you cannot be in that universe, 'the entire country of Mexico'. The absolute number may be of interest descriptively, but expressed as a percentage it has no useful predictive value, particularly to any subset of the universe. In other words, this number tells us nothing about Penasco, or Sonoita, or Tijuana and acting on it may cause you to do the opposite of what you want to do.

If based on actual numbers reported the probability of being struck by a car in the city of Phoenix may be computed to be, say .00001 (one in 100,000). The probability of being struck by a vehicle while standing in the fast lane of I-10 in Phoenix at rush hour is likely 1.00 or 100%. While you cannot be in the 'universe' of the first example, you can in the second example, making it a useful predictive statistic.

 

[Roberto]

A man is walking in a park in NYC, tearing pieces of paper and throwing them around. Asked what he was doing he replied "I'm keeping the elephants away". The questioner replied " Thats ridiculous, there are no elephants around here" to which the response was "See, it works"

 

[JimMcG]

In the Phoenix version of that story the husband was carrying a 50 caliber which was required for Phoenix rogue elephants since paper, although sufficient for NYC was inadequate in the valley of the sun. Based on the forgoing discussion and precedents and anecdotes, what can we deduce from this observation? :razz:

 

[Jim]

I'm checking out of this one with one last comment. I have lived here full time for over a year and have been coming twice a month for 15 years. My cooler dissapearing was the worst thing that happened and it was due to my own stupidity. I now am a partner in a bar and regularly leave at 2-3AM. I see no violent gangs roaming the streets or fires burning out of control. I just drive home and go to bed. Just like I did when I lived in Tucson and just like I did when I lived in a town of 3000 people in Minnesota.

 

[m4shawn]

Jim - and despite your very relevant and repeated experience, Submarine would discard your testimony as meaningless anecdote. He would perhaps claim you are just lucky, insulated or just dumb and unobservant?
I call it common sense real info by someone with first hand exposure to the place we are discussing.

Great analysis of the Mexico murder rate issue, Roberto. Exactly.
Love the tissue paper elephant repelant illustration of meaningless circular logic.

Something else about those Mexico murder statistics Sub keeps lamenting (irrelevant as they are to a discussion about RP) - they are from 1998-2008, right?
So for the sake of the argument, let's pretend that they are revealing and relevant in some way - well... it looks like this murder rate has been fairly constant for 10 years now. So how then does this support the hysteria that has suddenly decended upon American travelers in the past 6 months?? What's different? What changed to trigger the panic? It sure wasn't a spike in the murder rate if we are to take Sub's stats as gospel proof - those have been the same high rate for a decade.

We all know what the spark was: the Arizona colleges taking it upon themselves to issue their alarmist warnings to their students in February - it wasn't even the State Dept travel warnings - even those have been standard fair for 3-4 years - nothing new. The Phoenix news media seized on the angle of the story - because fear sells - gets the attention of viewers. That was the gasoline. The dry brush was these times of fear, uncertainty and doubt about our economy by the public. Witness the mania for a week about the swine flu. Public mania and rumor were the high winds .... and we had the perfect storm to create hysteria, lumping RP in with the misunderstood context of Mexico's drug situation - creating what I believe to be no less than a hoax.

I'll repeat the theme again: perspective, common sense and the ABSENCE of incidents in RP = no need to be afraid. Submarine calls it "assessing the risk". Semantics. Bullsh*t.

 

[playaperro]

Sub the part time troll

M4, Sub is always looking for a chain to pull, He's just breaking you in.

 

[Kenny]

What chain?

Sub, they just might be a pile of rocks to you, and they are not made of Coral, but they are still reefs... here :fish: :fish: :lol:

Kenny

 

[m4shawn]

:wink: Thanks for the insider tip perro... I'll try to keep my undies untwisted when he and I engage in debate again; I assume we will.
This particular subject is just one in which I am very impassioned in my opinion. I despise the level of madness, the degree of the ignorance and the damage to the RP economy it does, not to memtion my personal project with the volleyball tournament. It's unbelievable.

 

[Stuart]

Shawn,

Just tell Sub you think a Chevy Duramax could out pull his sorry-ass Ford and call it even.

<me likes poking snakes with sticks! Uh-huh!>

 

[reportjones]

This thread sure got hi-jacked. Did anyone confirm if this was true?